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| Pirates Manager Clint Hurdle will be staring down a winnable NL Central in 2012. |
The Pirates finished 72-90 in 2012, good for fourth place in the division. The race was close through July, with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and eventual World Series champion St. Louis all battling it out for the top spot. Of course, we all know what happened to the Pirates - another summer swoon killed off the hopes and dreams of long suffering fans. If the Pirates can find a way to play consistently for the entire season, it is not beyond comprehension that they could win this division with around 90-92 wins in 2012. In order to do that, the Pirates will need to avoid the mid-summer nightmare that they have made their calling-card over the past five years. In this article we will take a look at all of the NL Central teams and give a quick prediction on where they will finish in 2012. Brace yourself, Pirates fans - I am predicting a pennant race down to the final week of the season for the Battlin' Buccos.
If you have followed Steel World Order over the past few weeks, you are now well endowed with information and predictions on the 2012 Pirates. Now let us take a look at the rest of the division foes.
We will start with the defending National League Central division champions, the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee Brewers
Manager - Ron Roenicke
2011 Record - 96-66, 1st place
Key Additions - 3B Aramis Ramirez, SS Alex Gonzalez, RP Jose Veras
Key Losses - 1B Prince Fielder, 3B Casey McGehee, SS Yuniesky Betancourt
Biggest Issues heading into camp:
- Possible Ryan Braun 50-game suspension
- Who will replace Prince Fielder at 1st Base
- How much does 3rd baseman Aramis Ramirez have left in the tank?
The Brewers will head into 2012 without Prince Fielder at first base for the first time since 2006. All Fielder did in his time in Milwaukee was smash 230 HR and anchor a lineup that at times was the most prolific in the National League. The hole in the middle of the lineup caused by Fielder's loss will be a season-long issue for the Brewers. Compounding matters is the impending decision on the Ryan Braun PED issue, which could drag out to the start of Spring Training. If Braun is unable to successfully appeal the 50-game suspension that MLB has decided on, the Brewers could head into 2012 missing both of the key power components of their 2011 division-winning squad. With names like Taylor Green and Logan Schafer as the possible replacements for Braun in the event he is out for the first two months, the Brewers will be in danger of a slow start in their quest to defend their division title. The signing of 3rd Baseman Aramis Ramirez is expected to offset some of the loss of power the absence of Braun/Fielder would cause, but Ramirez is now a 33-year old question mark who has spent a great deal of time on the DL over the past few years. When healthy, A-Ram can still hit, as evidenced by his .306/29/93 line on 2011. The change from playing home games at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field to the more neutral Miller Park needs to be accounted for, as does the possibility that Ramirez will only have 2B Rickie Weeks and OF Corey Hart to help carry the load of driving in runs for the first part of the season.
Nyjer Morgan (.304/.357/.421) who has achieved cult-favorite status in Milwaukee, will be leading off and playing his unique brand of centerfield. Corey Hart (.285/26/63) has quietly become one of the better offensive right fielders in the game. The 1st base situation appears to fall on the shoulders of former top prospect Mat Gamel, who will be learning a new full-time position after coming up as a 3rd baseman. Gamel has spent parts of the last four seasons with the Brewers, and as of yet has not shown the power that the team has expected from him. If Gamel is unable to produce, the Brewers will need to find a quick fix in order to stay afloat in the competitive NL Central.
The pitching staff will be essentially the same as the 2011 staff, with a rotation that includes ace SP Yovani Gallardo, Zach Greinke, Shaun Marcum, ageless Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson. That rotation was highly effective in 2011, winning a combined 70 games. Gallardo and Greinke are bona-fide stud starting pitchers, and Marcum is a very underrated #3 starter. The Brewers should get similar numbers from all of their starters in 2012, although run support could be an issue early on. The bullpen will be anchored by closer John Axford (1.95 ERA 46 saves) and set-up man Fransisco Rodriguez, who could step in a closer immediately if injury or ineffectiveness were to occur. The newest Brewers reliever will be former Pirates hurler Jose Veras, acquired in the Casey McGehee trade. Time to add Prilosec to the shopping list, Brewers fans.
Overall, the Brewers are facing an uncertain future. The Ryan Braun issue hangs over this team like an anvil, ready to fall at any time. The loss of Prince Fielder hurts more than just on the field, as Fielder had become the leader of this team and a guy who managed to keep the team loose and on-point during the long summer stretches that usually make or break a season. I look for the Brewers to stumble in 2012, and although I predict that they will be in the race until the end, I believe they will miss the postseason. It may be a few years before Bernie Brewer is sliding into the postseason again.
Manager - Mike Matheny (1st year)
2011 Record - 90-72, 2nd place, Wild Card, World Series Champions
Key Additions - OF Carlos Beltran
Key Losses - 1B Albert Pujols, SS Ryan Theriot, SP Edwin Jackson
Biggest Issues heading into camp:
- Who can replace Albert Pujols, the best player in franchise history?
- How much do Carlos Beltran and Rafael Furcal have left in the tank?
- Can the big two starters - Wainwright and Carpenter - stay healthy for a full season together?
- How will the loss of long-time Manager Tony LaRussa affect the defending champions?
As they did in 2006, the Cardinals rode a postseason hot streak all the way to another World Series championship. The Cardinals enjoyed a magical ride in 2011, but the offseason has left this franchise with many questions and a bad taste in their mouths after losing out on free agent 1st baseman Albert Pujols and witnessing the retirement of manager Tony LaRussa. The Cardinals have tabbed one-time Redbird catcher Mike Matheny to be the replacement for LaRussa, and signed free agent OF Carlos Beltran to offset some of the offense lost when Pujols took his talents west.
The top question for St. Louis is how they will replace three-time NL MVP Pujols in the lineup. In his time in St. Louis, Pujols averaged 40 HR and over 110 RBI and was the cog that made the entire lineup work. In 2011, the Cardinals made possibly the best free agent addition to any team when they signed Lance Berkman - who many thought was at the end of his career - and he proceeded to post a .301/31/94 line. The Cardinals are hoping to get the same type of production from another free agent in 2012, as Carlos Beltran will now be the starting rightfielder. Beltran split 2011 between the New York Mets and the San Fransisco Giants, and posted decent numbers (.300/22/84), however health is always a concern with Beltran. If healthy, he should be able to add enough to the lineup - coupled with a healthy Matt Holliday - to make sure the Cardinals don't miss Pujols too much. Holliday is one of the top hitters in the game, but suffered through a season in which he only played in 124 games due to various injuries. He will need to play at least 150 games for the Cardinals to maximize their output and stay in the NL Central race.
The Cardinals will also be trotting out a new Opening Day shortstop in veteran Rafael Furcal, acquired at the trade deadline a year ago and resigned in the offseason. Furcal was fantastic for St. Louis down the stretch, earning another starting gig at age 34. When healthy, Furcal is a nice weapon - although the speed that was his hallmark early in his career has all but vanished. He is still capable of giving the Cardinals a solid defensive option as well as a .290/10/60 line if he plays 150 games. The rest of the lineup will include long-time starting catcher Yadier Molina, who has evolved into a solid offensive threat to match his already Gold Glove defense. Also starting will be 2nd baseman Skip Schumaker, World Series hero 3rd baseman David Freese, and CF Jon Jay, who will look to continue his great hitting from a a year ago (.297/10/37). The key bench players will be OF/1B Allen Craig, and INF Daniel Descalso.
The pitching staff will once again revolve around the health of the two ace starters - Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Both have missed significant time over their careers with injuries, but when healthy both are also shutdown starters who could easily win 20 games. The rest of the rotation will be filled by Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA), Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA), and Jake Westbrook (12-9, 4.66 ERA). The Cardinals are still looking to add another starter, possibly Roy Oswalt. Edwin Jackson, acquired mid-season in 2011, has signed with Washington. The bullpen was led by closer Fernando Salas (24 saves, 2.28 ERA) in 2011 but the Cardinals have tabbed Jason Motte (2.25 ERA, 63/16 K/BB) as the closer to start 2012. Salas moves into a set-up role to give the Cardinals a solid back end of their bullpen. The rest of the bullpen will be filled by RHP Mitchell Boggs (3.56 ERA in 60.2 IP), RHP Kyle McClellan, LHP JC Romero, and LHP Marc Rzepczynski.
The Cardinals are going to have to adjust to life without Albert Pujols and Tony LaRussa, a major task for this organization. They also will be without pitching coach Dave Duncan, long thought to be a genius at turning pitchers around. Derek Lilliquist will fill that role for manager Matheny. That is a whole lot of change in one season, and I believe the Cardinals will not be able to totally overcome those odds. Unfortunately, injuries will play a major part in their 2012 season. The Cardinals will need younger players such as Freese to truly become the leaders of this franchise. I think the Cardinals will have enough to make the playoffs as a Wild Card if they can avoid a major rash of missed games by their veteran core of Berkman/Holliday/Furcal/Beltran.
Cincinnati Reds
Manager - Dusty Baker
2011 Record - 79-83, 3rd place
Key Additions - SP Mat Latos, RP Ryan Madson, RP Sean Marshall,
Key Losses - SP Edison Volquez, closer Fransisco Cordero, 1B Yonder Alonso (prospect)
Biggest Issues heading into camp:
- How big of an impact will SP Mat Latos make now that he is away from Petco Park?
- Can Ryan Madson become a premier closer in Cincinnati?
- Are Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs ready to become elite hitters?
- Where does P Aroldis Chapman fit in?
The Reds were a trendy pick to win the NL Central in 2011, and did not meet expectations. After a disappointing season, the Reds front office went out and changed the pitching staff for the better by acquiring ace SP Mat Latos from San Diego, and signing Madson and RP Sean Marshall to anchor the bullpen. The reds are built around 1st Baseman Joey Votto, one of the premier players in the game. With a rotation that includes Latos/Johnny Cueto/ Bronson Arroyo/Mike Leake/ and possibly Aroldis Chapman, the Reds could have a dominant staff. It all seems to be coming together to produce an NL Central title and a playoff berth for Dusty Baker and his Redlegs.
The trade that sent Yonder Alonso and Edison Volquez to San Diego for Mat Latos was your typical "all in" trade that a general manager makes when he feels his club is one key element away from a special season. Latos is a young, bonafide stud SP who will immediately be the ace of this staff. Why San Diego was willing to part with Latos is of no concern to the Reds, who are just thrlled to have a genuine #1 starter in 2012.
The offense is lead by 1st Baseman Joey Votto, a player who is just starting to scratch the surface of his ability. In 2011, Votto posted a .309/29/103 line which is right in the wheelhouse for what he has done in all four of his full major-league seasons. Votto is about to become a superstar, but he needs some help. That help should come from the combination of Jay Bruce (.256/32/97) and 2B Brandon Phillips (.300/18/82). Beyond that, the Reds are hoping for OF Drew Stubbs to improve on his 2011 line (.243/15/44 with 40 SB) and for one of the younger starters - C Ryan Hanigan, SS Zack Cozart, OF Chris Heisey - to cash in on their pedigree and break out big in 2012. The crafty veteran Scott Rolen is manning the hot corner, and how much he has left after an injury-riddled 2011 is a question that must be answered in camp.
Overall, the Reds have what looks to be a solid team on paper, and despite the disappointing finish in 2011, they bring a great deal of talent to the 2012 roster. The rotation is solid at the top with Latos and Cueto, Bronson Arroyo is still a solid #3 starter, and between Leake/Homer Bailey/Aroldis Chapman they will need to find a way to fill the 4-5 spots. The bullpen could end up being the strongest in the division, led off by the arrival of new closer Ryan Madson. Madson comes over from Philadelphia, where he inherited the closer job in 2011 and excelled (32 saves, 2.37 ERA, 62/16 K/BB). Now out of the spotlight of Philadelphia and with the closer job his from day one, Madson should become a premier closer. The rest of the bullpen features some of the best RP in the game in LHP Sean Marshall, RHP Nick Masset, LHP Bill Bray, and possibly Chapman. Also returning is RHP Jose Arredondo, who missed all of 2010 before returning in 2011 and posting a 3.23 ERA in 53 IP. The Reds bullpen is solid, and could be even better if some of the younger pitchers earn roster spots in Spring Training.
Dusty Baker is heading into 2012 with probably his best Reds team yet, and I am picking them to win the NL Central and advance to the postseason.
Chicago Cubs
Manager - Dale Sveum (1st year)
2011 Record - 71-91, 5th place
Key Additions -SP Paul Maholm, SP Andy Sonnanstine, SP Chris Volstad, 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Ian Stewart, OF David Dejesus,
Key Losses -1B Carlos Pena, 3B Aramis Ramirez, OF Kosuke Fukodome, SP Carlos Zambrano, RP Sean Marshall, RP John Grabow
Biggest Issues heading into camp:
- The new era of the Chicago Cubs brings Theo Epstein and Manager Dale Sveum into the Windy City
- Who will drive in runs for a team that lost 173 RBI from Ramirez/Pena in the offseason?
- How will new SP Paul Maholm, Andy Sonnanstine and Chris Volstad pitch in Wrigley Field?
- Can 1B Prospect Anthony Rizzo succeed in the major leagues?
- Who will emerge as clubhouse leaders for a club that needs guidance?
When the Cubs announced that Theo Epstein had accepted the job of President of Baseball Operations, many Cubs fans expected some major moves in free agency to rebuild a Cubs team that failed miserably in 2011. While the Cubs did not go with an all out youth movement, they are expected some younger players to fill key positions. The Cubs brought in veteran players such as OF David Dejesus and 3B Ian Stewart to fill holes until their prospects are ready to emerge. Chicago also went out and reconstructed their starting rotation, trading away troublesome SP Carlos Zambrano and bringing in SP Paul Maholm, Andy Sonnanstine, Chris Volstad, and Travis Wood to fill out their rotation behind incumbent ace Ryan Dempster and SP Matt Garza. The rotation will be figured out in camp, as SP Randy Wells and young SP Casey Coleman will try to pry jobs away from the veterans. The entire rotation beyond Dempster/Garza/Maholm is a work in progress.
The Cubs did not bring back long-time 3rd baseman Aramis Ramirez, instead opting to sign former Colorado Rockies 3rd baseman Ian Stewart to serve o the hot corner for 2012. Stewart could be categorized as a disappointment thus far in his career, never living up to the promise he showed as a young player in the Colorado system. In 2011, Stewart only played in 48 games, and his health and durability is a cause for concern. Stewart had his best season way back in 2006, when he posted a .228/25/70 line for the Rockies. Since then, he has not done much. The Cubs are hoping a change of scenery will turn Stewart around. At shortstop, the Cubs have one of the most exciting young players in the game in Starlin Castro. Castro had a great 2011, posting a .307/10/66 line with 22 SB and playing solid defense. He is a future star. Darwin Barney heads into camp as the 2nd baseman (.276/2/43 in 143 games in 2011). The 1st base situation will be a Spring Training battle between rookies Anthony Rizzo and Bryan LaHair. Both have minimal major league experience, but are considered to be high-level prospects. The starting catcher will once again be Govanny Soto, who has been very inconsistent offensively over his career. He will be backed up by Steve Clevenger.
In the outfield, the Cubs will field veteran Alfonso Soriano in LF, Marlon Byrd in CF, and newcomer David Dejesus in RF. All are solid players at this point in their careers, and they will constitute the main offense in this lineup. Soriano (.244/26/88) has regressed each year since his days of being one of the top player sin the game. Bryd emerged in 2009 as a solid major league hitter, and has continued that trend since coming to Chicago in 2010. He regressed power-wise in 2011, when he only played in 119 games due to injuries. Dejesus is a solid major league outfielder who will probably hit leadoff in 2012. His 2011 line of .240/10/46 was way off his career numbers, and can probably be attributed to playing his home games in cavernous Oakland Coliseum. Expect him to rebound well in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. OF Reed Johnson will once again serve as the forth outfielder, and will probably start close to 80 games.
The Cubs rebuilt pitching staff will have a decent bullpen to finish games if the starters can get the ball to them. Carlos Marmol had a down season in 2011, but with his array of pitches and closer demeanor he should rebound back to being one of the top closers in baseball. The rest of the bullpen will fill out with RHP Jeff Samardzija, veteran RHP Kerry Wood, LHP James Russell, and an array of rookies and non-roster invitees.
The Cubs are preparing to enter this new era with a season that may be one of their worst in years. The plan seems to be to allow the major league team to field the best possible unit, while giving the younger players a chance to shine in fill-in roles and hopefully to allow some of the top prospects to come up mid-season and prepare to take a much younger team into Spring Training next year. Expect Theo Epstein to make a splash in free agency after the 2012 season and position the Cubs to be a potential playoff team by 2014.
For 2012, the Cubs are only going to be kept out of the basement in the NL Central by the Houston Astros. A long season awaits on the north side of Chicago.
Houston Astros
Manager - Brad Mills
2011 Record - 56-106, 6th place
Key Additions - SS Jed Lowrie
Key Losses - SS Clint Barmes, RP Mark Melancon
Biggest Issues heading into camp:
- Can the young 'Stros step up and keep this team from back-to-back 100 loss seasons?
- How long will SP Wandy Rodriguez be in Houston?
- Are young SP Jordan Lyles, Henry Sosa, Kyle Weiland, and Lucas Harrell ready to join the fray?
- Who will make up the starting OF?
The Houston Astros are in the process of a full-fledged franchise makeover, changes that extend from the field all the way to the top executives and ownership. To confuse matters further, the Astros are going to be making the ultimate move in 2013 - to the American League West. In the meantime, the team that started play in 1962 as the Houston Colt .45's are laying the ground work for a season that could challenge their 106-loss 2011 for the worst in club history.
The Astros are only seven years removed from appearing in the World Series, but very little remains of that team. As a matter of fact, only one player - SP Wandy Rodriguez - remains from the roster that won the National League pennant in 2005, and there is a very good chance that he will be playing elsewhere before the end of the coming season. The Astros have a lot of work to do before they can dream of a winning season, and that work starts this year. The team will have no less than six different starters in their Opening Day lineup, including a new outfield trio, a new shortstop, new 2nd baseman, and possibly a new catcher and 3rd baseman. The remaining holdover from last seasons opening squad is veteran Carlos Lee, and he will be attempting to move to 1st base full time. The biggest offseason acquisition for Houston is new SS Jed Lowrie, who came over from Boston in exchange for last years closer, Mark Melancon.
The pitching staff will have a few familiar names. SP Brett Myers (7-14, 4.46 ERA) is the defacto #1 starter. He is joined in the rotation by Wandy Rodriguez (11-11, 3.49), Bud Norris (6-11, 3.77, 176 Ks), and J.A. Happ (6-15, 5.35). Happ is not guaranteed a rotation spot after his rough 2011, so the Astros will go into camp with a number of young prospects battling it out for the chance to be part of the starting five. Houston is blessed with some great young arms, including RHP Jordan Lyles, RHP Henry Sosa, RHP Kyle Weiland, and RHP Lucas Harrell. All have the potential to be stalwarts in the rotation when the Astros make the shift to AL ball in 2013. Spring Training will be a hotbed of competition, and we should know a lot more about these young pitchers by Opening Day. The Astros also invited veterans SP Livan Hernandez and Zach Duke to camp. Hernandez is coming off several decent seasons in Washington, and despite having essentially zero zip left on any of his pitches, he is still an inning-eater. He has a very good chance of being in the mix for this team, where his experience and veteran presence could be a major asset for the youngest team in the majors.
The bullpen is a toss-up, with only closer Brandon Lyon assured of a job. The rest of the bullpen will be made up of a combination of the following: RHP Wilton Lopez (2.79 ERA in 71 IP), RHP Enerio Del Rosario (4.58 ERA in 53 IP), LHP Sergio Escalona (2.93 ERA in 27.2 IP), RHP Aneury Rodriguez (5.27 ERA in 85.1 IP), RHP David Carpenter (2.93 ERA in 27.2 IP), and RHP Fernando Rodriguez (3.96 ERA in 52.1 IP). Others in the mix are LHP Wesley Wright and RHP Juan Abreu, who both pitched a few innings in 2011. It's a no name bullpen, but with talent to go around. The Astros are not lacking for young power arms.
The Astros are hoping that former top prospect Brett Wallace can start to develop into a cornerstone player in 2012. Wallace has had it rough thus far, bouncing between several organizations before finding his way to Houston. The Astros handed him a starting job in 2011, placing him at 1st base. Wallace has the potential to be a great power source if he gets on track, and the Astros will need him to produce if they plan on surprising anyone in 2012. Another wild card for Houston is CF Jordan Schafer, who came over from Atlanta midseason. Schafer showed promise while with the Braves, and could be the future centerfielder, replacing long time Astros star Michael Bourn.
Houston has big changes coming, and it might be easy for the organization to overlook this season as they have bigger things on the horizon. If anything, 2012 will be the season where they find out exactly how all of the trades they made over the past few seasons pan out. Many of those players acquired will be expected to step into key roles this year. The roster has a good bit of talent, and with the expectation that the trade deadline will see the departure of SP Brett Myers, Carlos Lee, and SP Wandy Rodriguez to continue building on that talent. The Astros will be bad, and unfortunately for fans in Houston - great baseball fans who have supported some bad teams over the years - 2012 could end up worse than 2011 in the standings. The Astros will bring up the rear in the NL Central, and attempt to not lose 100 games. Better days are just over the horizon for this franchise.
So now that you have the goods on all of the teams in the NL Central, how will they finish in 2012? Here is the official Steel World Order prediction for the Pirates division for the upcoming season.
National League Central Division
| Tm | W | L | GB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 93 | 69 | -- | ||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 92 | 70 | 1.0 | ||
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 88 | 74 | 5.0 | ||
| Milwaukee Brewers | 84 | 78 | 9.0 | ||
| Chicago Cubs | 70 | 92 | 23.0 | ||
| Houston Astros | 61 | 101 | 32.0 |
That's right folks, this is the season the Pittsburgh Pirates break into the +.500 club. I believe that the Pirates will start hot again, maintain their momentum through the All-Star Break, and make a few moves early enough to keep them in the race down to the final week of play. The division will tight all season, with Cincinnati, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee all having their turn in first place. Things will start to develop to an end in September, and the Pirates pitching staff will not have the durability to win the division.
This bodes well for an all-out charge at a division title in 2013, hopefully with some of the key prospects that we all believe will be in Pittsburgh sooner than later.
I hope you all have enjoyed the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates preview here at Steel World Order. I have enjoyed researching and writing these articles, and I look forward to seeing some big crowds at PNC Park all summer as the Pirate emerge from their 19-year slumber to become relevant once again!
Let's Go Bucs!
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