2012 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview: The Starting Rotation

New Pirates SP Erik Bedard

When discussing the 2012 Pirates rotation, one tends to start day dreaming about the not to distant future.  The maturation and debut of talents such as Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon seem to be the next step in the turnaround of the franchise - a day that fans are clammering to get here as soon as possible.

For us to give honest analysis on the 2012 Pirates, we have to shelve the dreams of 2014 and concentrate on the here and now.  While it's fun to think of the future, the current Pirates have assembled an interesting array of starting pitchers that will be taking the mound in 2012.  A few holdovers will anchor the rotation, while a newcomer and several young prospects attempt to lock down the final two slots and give the Pirates a solid 1-5 for this coming season.  It would be safe to consider 2012 a "transition" season for the Pirates pitching staff, as many of the hurlers fans will come to PNC Park to watch this summer will be playing a major part in the future of this club.

It can be frustrating at times to watch a young kid go out and get shelled every fifth night, but keeping in mind that starting pitchers mature at a slower level than position players should be foremost in the mind of Pirates fans.  The best starters for the early 1990's Pirates teams didn't exactly set the world on fire from day one (except that young kid with the knuckleball - wonder what ever happened to him?).  Doug Drabek and John Smiley both suffered through rough starts to their careers before finding their place in the Pirates record books.  Even future Hall of Fame candidates such as John Smoltz and Tom Glavine felt the major league growing pains coming up with some bad Atlanta Braves teams in the late 80's.  Pitching at this level is a science, and the variables change by the minute.  Most starting pitchers will take anywhere from 2-3 full major league seasons before they figure out what works and what needs to be changed.  The Pirates have allowed their lack of patience to cause them to miss out on great careers by Bronson Arroyo, Jon Lieber, Jason Schmidt, and most recently Ryan Vogelsong - who looked as bad as anyone not named Van BenSchoten on those Pirates teams.

With that preamble out of the way, the hope is that fans will continue to support the Pirates like they did in the early part of 2011, even when the rough patches occur.  Let's take a look at the Bucco starters you all will see in 2012:

Charlie Morton was 10-10 in 2011 for the Pirates.

Charlie Morton was a completely different pitcher in 2011, morphing from a powerful hurler into a legitimate major league starter armed with a devastating sinker.  Morton is a perfect example of how a pitcher can find a new identity, and he will be expected to anchor this rotation in 2012.

Morton went 10-10 with a 3.83 ERA in 2012, with 110 Ks while walking 77.  The 77 walks were a big part of him posting a 1.53 WHIP, a number that must come down if Morton is going to hit the next level of development.  The other caution sign is the health of the 27-year old Morton, who has undergone several surgeries in his career, including hip surgery he had in October.  Morton has stated that he will be ready for the start of Spring Training, but his durability could end up being an issue.  In 2011, he pitched 171.2 innings, by far the most of his major league career.  For him to get to that magical 200+ innings plateau, Morton will need to stay healthy and focused during the late summer months.  All in all, Charlie Morton is probably the best starter on this staff, and he will be counted on to be the anchor - if not the ace.  He has my vote for starting the home opener at PNC Park.

James McDonald has been an enigma since coming over from the Dodgers in 2010.  McDonald has the physical skills to be an effective pitcher, and has 311 major league innings under his belt at age 26.  His 2011 season was very similar to Morton, with McDonald being more of a strikeout pitcher to Morton's ground ball barrage.  In 2011, McDonald pitched 171 innings and posted a 9-9 record, 4.21 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.  The biggest issue McDonald has to contend with is the longball, he gave up 24 homers last season.  If he can get that number under 15 in 2011, his ERA will drop into the solid 4.00 area.  The Pirates offense should continue to improve, and if McDonald gets good run support in his starts he could easily be in the running to be the ace of this staff heading into 2013.

James McDonald will be expected to improve on his 4.21 ERA in 2012.

 Last offseason, the Pirates surprised the hot stove by signing SP Kevin Correia.  Correia started the season on fire, winning enough games to warrant his first All Star selection.  The second half of the season wasn't so kind to the 9-year veteran.  He missed the final six weeks of the 2011 season with a shoulder injury that will not effect his ability to start Spring Training on time.  Correia is not a #1 starter, he is a classic inning-eating middle rotation guy who can greatly help a club by averaging close to 6 innings per start.  With decent run support, he can be a 12-15 win pitcher for a team that is going to need their starters to pound out innings every time out.  Correia has the experience to be a leader on this team, as well as a vault of information for the younger guys to indulge in.  Pencil him in as the #3 starter with a chance to be higher if he comes out of the gate fast again in 2012.

Kevin Correia earned his first All Star Game appearance in 2011.

Jeff Karstens was the biggest surprise for Pirates fans in 2011.  The one-time starter had been reduced to a long-relief bullpen pitcher after high walk issues forced him there in 2010.  Karstens was granted a few spot starts early in the season and pitched so well that he stuck in the rotation the rest of the season.  His 2011 stats are amazing when compared to his career numbers.  In 2011, he posted a 3.38 ERA that had him in the Top 10 of National League starters.  His 1.21 WHIP illustrates his ability to avoid the base on balls issue that had plagued him over much of his career.  Karstens will be in the rotation from the start in 2012, and will be expected to start 30+ games for the first time in his career with the Pirates.  If he maintains the type of performance he showed in 2011 and continues to improve on his HR and Walk numbers, the sky is the limit for his future in Pittsburgh.

Jeff Karstens is coming off a career year in 2011.

The final piece to what should be the Opening Day Pirates rotation is newly acquired LHP Erik Bedard.  Baseball fans have been waiting for Bedard to fulfill his potential since 2002, when he was a top prospect for Baltimore.  Injuries have sapped close to four full seasons of his career, but in 2011 he seemed to regain some of the magic he showed in 2006-2007, when he was one of the top strikeout pitchers in the AL.  Bedard pitched for Seattle and Boston in 2011, and posted a combined 3.62 ERA with an opponent batting average of .241.  His velocity was back up to its top level, and the strikeouts came with it - 125 K's in 129 combined innings.  Furthermore, with the loss of Paul Maholm in free agency, Bedard enters the spring as the only left-handed starter for the Pirates.  If Bedard can continue to stay healthy, he should have a great season in his first National League experience.  The Pirates would also have a great trade chip for the Trade Deadline, where they may or may not be looking to make moves.

The rotation should look like this coming out of Spring Training:

1.  Charlie Morton
2.  James McDonald
3.  Kevin Correia
4.  Jeff Karstens
5.  Erik Bedard

However, if injuries occur or the Pirates feel that they need to make a move, the Bucs have several options that are about ready to take their spot on the major league roster.

Brad Lincoln would be the first guy in line should an injury occur or the need for a spot starter come up during the oddly scheduled first month of the season.  Lincoln got absolutely mashed in his first taste of major league pitching in 2010, looked much better in his starts last season.  His ability and make-up could just be maturing, and the Pirates still think Lincoln could be a large part of their staff in 2012.  He will start the season at Indianapolis, and be waiting for the call to Pittsburgh.

Jeff Locke was brought up late in 2012 and given a cup of coffee with the Pirates.  He started 4 games and was overmatched.  Locke is considered a prospect and at 24-years old he may not be ready quite yet for the rigors of major league pitching.  His best case scenario would be a full season in AAA with a late season call-up to determine the progress he made.  Locke has the make-up to be a middle of the rotation type, with a decent array of pitches and good control in the minors.

Rudy Owens should start the season at AAA, and he is pretty much even with Locke as far as progress.  Owens could see a call-up this season if the Pirates are in need, and it will be interesting to see how the former 28th round pick has developed as he has risen through the Pirates system.

Kyle McPherson was the Pirates "Pitcher of the Year" for their minor league system in 2011.  He split the season between A-Bradenton and AA-Altoona and pitched well at the higher level, meaning that he is probably one season of AAA ball away from being in the discussion for 2013 roster spots.  McPherson is a power pitcher who racks up strikeouts and keeps the ball inside the park.  It will be very interesting to see how he handles the much higher skilled AAA hitters in 2012.  Look for a late season call-up if McPherson has another great showing at Indianapolis in 2012.

Kyle McPherson was the 2011 Pirates Minor League "Pitcher of the Year".

The Pirates will watch closely the development of top prospects Taillon, Cole, and Heredia this season.  Unless one of the those pitchers begins a fast climb to Pittsburgh, do not expect to see them this season.  Cole has the best chance to reach Pittsburgh quickly, but will have to really dominate the lower levels before his ticket is punched.

The Pirates may not have a star-studded rotation, but the options they have at their disposal are much better than in the past.  The Pirates will need their offense to carry the load for the starters they have, and if the Pirates can improve on all aspects of their hitting, this rotation could surprise the league in 2012.